Tennis Match Simulator
Enter each player's serve point-win probability to calculate exact match odds, set and game probabilities, and the most likely scorelines.
Match result
Enter serve rates to begin.
Match result
- Set win probability
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- Game win probability
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- Most likely scorelines
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How this tennis simulator works
This tennis simulator uses dynamic programming over every point state: games require four points and a two-point lead, sets require six games and a two-game lead, and 6–6 is resolved by a tiebreak. Serve alternates each game, so the model tracks who serves.
Small edges compound enormously in tennis. A 55% point-win rate on serve turns into a larger match-win probability because each point shapes games, games shape sets, and sets shape the match. This calculator computes and shows that amplification rather than simply asserting it.
P(deuce hold) = p² ÷ (1 − 2p(1 − p)) Results are exact probabilities for the stated model, not random simulations. The linked tennis match time calculator estimates duration separately.
Tennis simulator FAQ
What should I enter for serve probability?
Enter the percentage of points each player wins when serving, such as 55 for 55%. The simulator converts it to a probability from 0 to 1.
Does this use random simulation?
No. It uses memoised dynamic programming over point, game, set and match states, so the result is deterministic and exact for this model.
Why does a small serve edge matter so much?
A point edge compounds through deuce games, service breaks, sets and match format. The result panel shows the calculated 55% example for the selected format.
What does the final-set tiebreak option change?
When enabled, a deciding set at 6–6 is resolved by a first-to-10 tiebreak with a two-point lead. Otherwise, the set uses the standard first-to-7 tiebreak modeled here.
Can I estimate how long the match will take?
Use the sibling Tennis Match Time Calculator for a duration estimate.